CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f8556678e955e69e8bb1ae3a8c375425585571ac684d8b78118a3647bc8e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Omega, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,752 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Omega | 25c | 1,079$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.19 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Omega | 19c | 506.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…ba29backed Omega | 43c | 413.49$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Ursa | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f99…f4d5backed Ursa | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f0…67c9backed Omega | 44c | 320$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…c3b9backed Ursa | 56c | 320$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Ursa | 76c | 218.5$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ursa | 63c | 114.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Omega | 37c | 109.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 78c | 107.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Ursa | 73c | 105.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 392 | 48.7%191 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Ursa | 78c | 99.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Ursa | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 315 | 32.4%102 W · 213 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 78c | 28.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Omega vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs Omega (+1.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.