Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-08-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49c8be4867ccb6d2f782ede4e6c937cd3259589391aaf0fbe754af38cbb09ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 26c | 2,280$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.31 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 65c | 1,057$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.3 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 25c | 860.26$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.98 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 34c | 732$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.4 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6b32…32c1backed No | 77c | 640.53$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 35c | 557.81$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 75c | 506.66$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 62c | 493.33$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.49 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 464.1$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 69c | 369.27$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 43c | 349.09$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 36c | 333.33$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 41c | 227$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…4291backed Yes | 23c | 217.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…2b86backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1797…baa7backed Yes | 27c | 186.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed No | 78c | 171.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 70c | 170$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.57 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed No | 79c | 150.63$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed No | 78c | 122.24$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 70c | 101.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa324…1b67backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…43f8backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0de…443bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 24c | 48.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…2357backed No | 77c | 25.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed No | 68c | 21.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed No | 78c | 18.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…65c0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-08-24?this page
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.