Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3fa285d08950deac70c531990888b1c3ec52b8439efacbcfffb46c71412605c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff1…2890backed No | 51c | 13,122$6,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,461.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,410 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 49c | 2,093$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.64 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 54c | 1,211$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.21 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 51c | 798.39$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 51c | 782.69$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 48c | 416.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Yes | 13c | 289.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c8…0b69backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b83…a4c1backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d99…9666backed Yes | 52c | 194.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 13c | 167.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 61c | 164.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 9c | 119.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b5…909abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…1f45backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a9…64cbbacked Yes | 51c | 98.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 51c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 49c | 79.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 38c | 59.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked No | 62c | 39.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 33c | 36.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 51c | 35.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8802…f468backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…04febacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-08-24?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-08-24?Yes won
- Will FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.