Tennis · resolved market
Midland: Alina Charaeva vs Shilin Xu
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f850cfabea58b3f3d352bbb656a5edba578fb2b7a365aefccf3d5a619566f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Charaevaof Charaeva, Xu
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Xu | 11c | 2,331$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.42 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Xu | 15c | 1,612$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.89 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Xu | 21c | 1,164$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Xu | 20c | 1,127$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.27 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Xu | 28c | 1,044$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.09 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Charaeva | 62c | 718.46$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.01 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…6c2abacked Xu | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Charaeva | 63c | 508.16$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.21 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Xu | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.7 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Xu | 17c | 359.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Xu | 21c | 350.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…d3febacked Charaeva | 61c | 249.84$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Xu | 29c | 214.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…00bcbacked Xu | 27c | 158$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca3…0a58backed Xu | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Xu | 38c | 128.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Xu | 21c | 125.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Xu | 14c | 112.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Xu | 15c | 101.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Xu | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Charaeva | 70c | 69.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Xu | 34c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Xu | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 196 | 34.2%67 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Xu | 35c | 40.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Xu | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Charaeva | 70c | 37.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Charaeva | 80c | 34.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Charaeva | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Xu | 38c | 28.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Charaeva | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Midland: Alina Charaeva vs Shilin Xuthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Charaeva vs XuCharaeva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.