Tennis · resolved market
ITF Huamantla: Kallista Liu vs Mika Buchnik
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1d358617662159cbf6bbdea3552a884f00a2b73c066968f3c96a3ba9fa3388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mika Buchnikof Kallista Liu, Mika Buchnik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kallista Liu | 40c | 5,808$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.7 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mika Buchnik | 60c | 5,616$3,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.98 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Kallista Liu | 43c | 2,333$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.1 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Mika Buchnik | 61c | 1,138$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.74 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kallista Liu | 29c | 567.78$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Mika Buchnik | 60c | 235.85$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.34 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Mika Buchnik | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Mika Buchnik | 61c | 195.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Mika Buchnik | 61c | 185.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Mika Buchnik | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Mika Buchnik | 61c | 89.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Kallista Liu | 25c | 79.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed Kallista Liu | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Mika Buchnik | 41c | 54.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Mika Buchnik | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Mika Buchnik | 60c | 41.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Kallista Liu | 38c | 31.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…1701backed Mika Buchnik | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Kallista Liu | 45c | 24.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -21.0wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Mika Buchnik | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.