Earnings · resolved market
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a20448e4cb273e274fb12b15e75f15bc2bf84cede380b0ccc658e2e71c9d271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3847…df89backed No | 62c | 1,469$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 30c | 799.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 29c | 681.55$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…3980backed Yes | 72c | 494.73$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 399.98$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 283.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.6 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 32c | 261.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…3170backed Yes | 64c | 217.31$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 31c | 214.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.91 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 68c | 208$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked No | 50c | 161.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0726…1f34backed Yes | 54c | 157.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 68c | 149.31$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 31c | 128.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 33c | 118.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked Yes | 69c | 106.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 30c | 79.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 68c | 73.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 25c | 71.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…26a4backed Yes | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c2a3backed Yes | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b465backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…7ebdbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked No | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8472backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 29.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698d…2f2ebacked Yes | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…1e14backed Yes | 65c | 15.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.