Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Kartal (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a2fa1ff1665480fc4cdae718dcdbc3586b9da4813ec97ccae3a8238b7968d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kartalof Keys, Kartal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,935 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Keys | 47c | 798.6$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.52 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kartal | 55c | 553.44$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.29 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Kartal | 49c | 287.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.61 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Keys | 40c | 227.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Kartal | 61c | 206.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 245 | 60%147 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Keys | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…91aabacked Kartal | 60c | 150.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Keys | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kartal | 60c | 77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kartal | 65c | 58.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Keys | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Kartal | 55c | 47.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Keys | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Kartal (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Sonay KartalSonay Kartal won
- Keys vs. Kartal: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Keys vs. Kartal: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Madison Keys vs. Sonay Kartal: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Keys vs KartalKeys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.