Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a34a62995b37e7c27ca2300c13bdb1369da54c9eff164b7be7585fbb36ba2c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 287.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 7c | 241.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 73c | 230.01$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked No | 46c | 210.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 34c | 203.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 44c | 128.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 99.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 48c | 93.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 88.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 86.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Yes | 74c | 85.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 70.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 68.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 66.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 62.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 56.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 46c | 53.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked No | 57c | 50.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 42.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 42.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 37.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 41c | 36.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 38c | 34.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 33.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 33.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 47c | 33.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 32.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 38c | 30.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 46c | 25.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 23.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.