Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583ea7c948ad2b92ca038dd8aa75c13dd8039b012bcfbf95c771208d353cea53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15d3…5122backed Yes | 6c | 567.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 48c | 561.75$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.27 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 375.45$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…4008backed Yes | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 273.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 268.12$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 18c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 102.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 47c | 87.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 39c | 81.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 80.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 69c | 72.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 50c | 66.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 66.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 41c | 49.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 44c | 49.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 43c | 49.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 44c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 33c | 46.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 45.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 41.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 40.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 39.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 70c | 37.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 69c | 36.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 34.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 32.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…64b5backed No | 59c | 30.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 28.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 27.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 24.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 71c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.