TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Brute vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fire Flux Esportsof Brute, Fire Flux Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde8f…2c72backed Brute56c5,490$3,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,091.2828056.4%158 W · 122 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Brute52c4,952$2,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.0284958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Brute58c4,178$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,439.2632536%117 W · 208 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fire Flux Esports42c4,116$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,369.163,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Brute52c3,249$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.8284454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Fire Flux Esports48c3,118$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.6118341%75 W · 108 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Fire Flux Esports47c2,400$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.981947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Fire Flux Esports51c2,246$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.9213546.7%63 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c9…131cbacked Fire Flux Esports67c2,061$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.776137.7%23 W · 38 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d22…4b50backed Fire Flux Esports43c1,679$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.1820554.1%111 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fire Flux Esports39c1,275$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.862,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Fire Flux Esports48c1,236$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.9352951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Fire Flux Esports44c1,139$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.3233237%123 W · 209 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Brute56c1,113$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.46,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Brute1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102150.9%2 W · 213 L-1.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Fire Flux Esports43c961.2$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.4957641.5%239 W · 337 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Brute58c839.28$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.4220946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Brute60c813.43$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4881,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Brute1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4bb…22a9backed Brute56c800$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44827647.1%130 W · 146 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Fire Flux Esports42c762.19$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.0363541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed Fire Flux Esports70c692.34$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7924457%139 W · 105 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked Brute73c662.61$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.651,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Fire Flux Esports48c654.8$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.737,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Fire Flux Esports43c628.7$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.194,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed Brute56c614.63$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.9445465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Fire Flux Esports48c516.3$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.6233044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Fire Flux Esports48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2606744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Fire Flux Esports48c498.55$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.132,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Fire Flux Esports48c484.4$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.8929154%157 W · 134 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Brute53c469.96$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.085,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fire Flux Esports51c424.66$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.055,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Fire Flux Esports48c404.19$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Fire Flux Esports48c398.94$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.2528052.9%148 W · 132 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Brute54c397.75$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8964854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Brute43c387.59$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1636446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd0…389fbacked Brute57c340.56$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.012263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fire Flux Esports45c299.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.991,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa094…3f07backed Brute58c296.09$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7324942.2%105 W · 144 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0862…24d2backed Brute32c292.38$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.567742.9%33 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Fire Flux Esports55c291.3$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.071,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Brute52c283.05$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1984037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x640e…66c1backed Fire Flux Esports26c271.6$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.892330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed Brute70c248.45$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8842757.8%247 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5501…fe9abacked Fire Flux Esports50c246.34$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8418736.9%69 W · 118 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0354…2913backed Fire Flux Esports53c243.92$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7213540.7%55 W · 80 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65cf…5cdebacked Fire Flux Esports44c238.44$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.523548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f3…5d8ebacked Brute44c219.64$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Brute54c210.69$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7747447.5%225 W · 249 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccbc…7e80backed Brute53c200.19$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.11827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Fire Flux Esports30c176.9$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2113238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked Brute44c175.62$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2710949.5%54 W · 55 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Fire Flux Esports42c171.37$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9713655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Fire Flux Esports48c162.08$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.345042%21 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb553…457bbacked Brute18c157.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6470%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Brute54c147.89$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.861,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6722…865fbacked Brute54c135.06$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9327754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x252f…2561backed Brute28c132.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5656454.3%306 W · 258 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Fire Flux Esports65c127.27$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5483543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Fire Flux Esports50c126.1$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0559343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed Fire Flux Esports46c124.82$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.469732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Brute65c123.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.311,71052.3%895 W · 815 L-73.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2439…7cb3backed Brute62c119.51$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Fire Flux Esports23c119.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4930527.5%84 W · 221 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Fire Flux Esports56c109.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5573948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Fire Flux Esports46c106.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.322665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Brute38c106.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4420150.7%102 W · 99 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04b…3ce0backed Brute53c105.94$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.154837.5%18 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a1…d53ebacked Fire Flux Esports47c102.82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.417930.2%54 W · 125 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Fire Flux Esports47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5332845.1%148 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Brute53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5320047.5%95 W · 105 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked Fire Flux Esports45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5570038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Brute55c97.3$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5231852.8%168 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Fire Flux Esports51c95.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6331452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Fire Flux Esports47c92.7$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.131747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x675c…4341backed Brute56c87.49$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6718748.1%90 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Fire Flux Esports40c83.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.163847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc73…ed40backed Fire Flux Esports48c80.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6641…ceb2backed Fire Flux Esports16c78.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Brute71c78.61$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.761,27471.5%911 W · 363 L+3.3wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe46a…8626backed Brute54c78.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.171330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Fire Flux Esports52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7536334.2%124 W · 239 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Fire Flux Esports67c74.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.694,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea04…c30abacked Fire Flux Esports48c72.86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…471fbacked Brute50c72.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1935752.9%189 W · 168 L+22.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfa5…17bdbacked Brute55c70.51$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf740…cf50backed Brute55c68.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9513943.9%61 W · 78 L-9.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Fire Flux Esports49c63.78$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5328046.8%131 W · 149 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Brute46c62.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.031,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe239…1761backed Fire Flux Esports28c61.51$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.298748.3%42 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked Brute54c61.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9520643.7%90 W · 116 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x623a…5144backed Fire Flux Esports48c60.55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.494339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cc7…9194backed Fire Flux Esports50c59.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.979251.1%47 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d83…c9b1backed Fire Flux Esports32c52.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Fire Flux Esports48c50.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.242867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Fire Flux Esports60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206747.8%32 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Fire Flux Esports47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.554348.6%264 W · 279 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82c1…a5a2backed Brute72c45.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.811764.7%11 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f5…7a95backed Brute55c44.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3223751.5%122 W · 115 L-14.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked Brute34c44.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7840652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.