South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Club Olimpia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a59f9ccc116a06a6de723102857ee4a75d6bc956861cea751143420287b2105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 72c | 283.33$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Yes | 29c | 265.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 151.51$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 149.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 142$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 28c | 123.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 97.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 93.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 21c | 60.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…57d6backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4175…87a0backed Yes | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…59a4backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 75c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 71c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e8…d7b7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Club Olimpia end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-30?Yes won
- Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-04-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.