South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-04-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25224b03cbd9a341a78cec81a2f90257d28fd88bdfd8b8a5096746d4830868b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 22c | 6,468$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.97 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 78c | 4,431$3,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.72 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Yes | 23c | 1,200$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 1,193$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.39 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,084$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 830.24$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed Yes | 23c | 521.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed No | 77c | 501.85$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 22c | 501.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 78c | 404.08$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 292.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 243.77$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…25e4backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked No | 80c | 153.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 78c | 89.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…9955backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3401…2c62backed Yes | 23c | 64.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 50.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed No | 77c | 37.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked No | 78c | 25.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-04-30?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Club Olimpia end in a draw?No won
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.