South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f0fc36555b106a7a9e2c6295f965731e52bb0f3d03deab169605300380724e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 49c | 1,722$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.65 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed No | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked No | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 50c | 882.94$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.47 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 26c | 672.77$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.51 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 8c | 635.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 599.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked No | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked No | 51c | 562.73$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Yes | 73c | 550$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 49c | 502.04$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc78…c479backed Yes | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 48c | 465$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…1940backed Yes | 76c | 302.5$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 290.65$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 23c | 279.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 50c | 272.8$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 30c | 246.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…9583backed Yes | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 50c | 187.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…9666backed Yes | 51c | 184.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 65c | 164.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 50c | 158$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…0cf2backed No | 32c | 152.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 50c | 119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7053…25e4backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 49c | 106.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 50c | 100.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…fdb5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…d6f5backed No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…a5c1backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…e53abacked Yes | 51c | 77.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Yes | 75c | 73.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Yes | 51c | 71.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 50c | 60.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 49c | 59.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 47c | 53.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 107 | 67.3%72 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…1297backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 49.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 51c | 48.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 50c | 42.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Yes | 55c | 39.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…3003backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 49c | 34.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Yes | 51c | 34.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…57d6backed Yes | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 49c | 33.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Yes | 77c | 32.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 50c | 31.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 74c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…3371backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166e…3303backed Yes | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…aaa3backed Yes | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ab…93c6backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…c5e3backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 51c | 25.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 57c | 24.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked Yes | 74c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…ab3ebacked No | 50c | 20.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5483…5e9fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…8845backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 137 | 39.4%54 W · 83 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…3b2fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…ad00backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-30?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Club Olimpia end in a draw?No won
- Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-04-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.