Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a6ad916590f4d9ca596fb17e9106dc1d0683386217099c248825dc676d2a11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,134$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 577.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 12c | 569.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 514.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 409.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 399.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 301.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 9c | 290.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 12c | 289.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 12c | 248.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 203.84$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 191.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 15c | 178.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 8c | 163.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 11c | 154.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 137.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 137.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 14c | 135.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 13c | 123.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 120.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 114.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 12c | 107.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 105.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…dc7dbacked Yes | 18c | 98.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 96.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 26c | 91.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 25c | 80.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…a460backed Yes | 20c | 75.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 72.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 20c | 71.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 15c | 71.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 17c | 70.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 22c | 62.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aee…bdb1backed Yes | 33c | 58.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 57.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes | 19c | 56.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 76c | 53.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 27c | 47.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 44.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 79c | 37.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 36.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…8e49backed Yes | 29c | 35.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 76c | 34.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 77c | 24.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…bdbfbacked No | 74c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.