TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5f0…cec9backed Yes1c1,802$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf229…d5f7backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cb1…7318backed Yes38c493.87$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.61414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c448.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.067,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c383$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes32c362.79$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0339535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c317.48$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.229,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes30c301.72$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.845,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes20c290.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.571,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No70c285.7$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.712,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes24c254.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No70c198.33$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2128839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes24c177.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.124,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes20c176.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.862,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5d…5b70backed Yes25c171.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.168632.6%28 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee1b…5571backed Yes27c145.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.322821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes15c125.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53767.9%6 W · 70 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes14c125.24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.148417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No67c122.61$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.122,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No73c120.18$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6357038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes22c119.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes26c117.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8365749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes12c116.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.842130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No70c106.32$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.961,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3068335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes24c98.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0413322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes27c96.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0121641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes19c88.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5459021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes32c87.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.834067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No78c85$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.720172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c81.71$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.424,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c80.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.087,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes20c79.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.768531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c78.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.581,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb938…c094backed Yes37c73.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fff…8f49backed Yes18c67.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.185932.2%19 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes30c65.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8937533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No75c64.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.927558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeac…2970backed Yes32c64.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.462532%8 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes19c53.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.265834.5%20 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No72c52.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5321676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No69c51.07$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.831,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes29c50.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.699443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c49.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4990734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes28c49.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.941733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No62c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2421429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes27c46.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.712419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No75c46.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe00…b480backed Yes31c44.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.94955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes27c40.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9125447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x576c…bcf1backed Yes31c39.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.021915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe963…0239backed Yes29c38.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed No73c38.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.647754.5%42 W · 35 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf16…3a05backed No77c37.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6410667%71 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No71c37.96$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9428954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes31c35.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9618242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e3b…b989backed No69c35.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.795950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No69c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8572466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes30c34.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed Yes32c33.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.978436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes33c33.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9813943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No72c33.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1818272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No68c29.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No73c27.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.440777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No73c26.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1572952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No78c24.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3817355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No68c24.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5922675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No72c23.88$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5820266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a1e…9095backed No66c22.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5517376.3%132 W · 41 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No78c21.38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7627376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c20.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.532,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No68c20.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5286173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c41…8ca1backed No72c20.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+62.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No78c20.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.417173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e75…305ebacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211965.5%78 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No78c19.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.247972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No76c19.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.679668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No65c18.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.521,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No69c18.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.741460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No70c18.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4776371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No72c17.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0526566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No69c17.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.389666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No70c15.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.711664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No79c15.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.