MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a777f97b220015304b81bd5c57721f20c24df98f1a056a30b603e83922740f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 911.71$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.08 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 713.31$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.37 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 322$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…7f7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 322$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 35c | 253$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 242$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.87 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Houston Astros | 24c | 203.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca2…03cfbacked Houston Astros | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 163.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Houston Astros | 16c | 152.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Houston Astros | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros | 56c | 112$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fc…5054backed Houston Astros | 35c | 111.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Houston Astros | 24c | 110.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 37c | 108.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Houston Astros | 52c | 62.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Houston Astros | 25c | 59.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ad…0ef4backed Houston Astros | 54c | 45.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Houston Astros | 54c | 43.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Houston Astros | 53c | 24.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston AstrosPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-5.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.