MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0400719db67959ae114c5a74165755888b3afc9d43d189f0ba8fcef8b3a33e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 6,438$3,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,454.74 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 4,801$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,453.12 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 4,483$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280.37 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 3,972$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.44 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 1,988$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.16 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 31c | 1,566$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.34 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 49c | 769.39$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.34 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 46c | 543.42$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.44 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Over | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 42c | 310.62$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 21c | 181.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Over | 56c | 179.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 50c | 99.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Over | 16c | 85.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 17c | 80.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Under | 47c | 73.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 51c | 72.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 33c | 55.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Under | 47c | 46.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 59c | 40.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 42c | 39.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 52c | 39.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 43c | 29.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Over | 55c | 18.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston AstrosPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-5.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.