Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a870ff9176b87d8922c1b87925b5ac1a31417d3055b151dc41e0c352aaa9d00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 675.23$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.39 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 41c | 608$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.72 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 499.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 46c | 220$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…6d09backed Over | 19c | 208.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 60c | 155.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 14c | 153.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.53 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 54c | 139.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 73c | 137.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 63.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 51.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Under | 55c | 40.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 37.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fa…b168backed Over | 49c | 33.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 55c | 32.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 67c | 23.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-2.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.