Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB dip to $800 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a925bf64a36bdebf400f865eb820fbbe7f6cc66fcf1a8024540e803d0a6afd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb93a…bb32backed No | 0c | 15,296$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes | 57c | 1,110$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 4c | 975$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.1 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed Yes | 20c | 920.42$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 899.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.99 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 8c | 876.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.7 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 728.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.57 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 6c | 606$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b6…aecbbacked No | 57c | 563.28$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…defebacked Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +491.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…fc04backed No | 64c | 482.17$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 5c | 476$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…c7efbacked Yes | 6c | 431.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +613.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 409.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.15 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…9aafbacked Yes | 15c | 340.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.85 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +6.1wins | +0.38per pick | 50cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 49c | 329.53$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 287.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.93 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…bb81backed Yes | 9c | 272.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +527.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 6c | 265.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.07 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…89fcbacked No | 75c | 252.13$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +266.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…72c1backed No | 75c | 196$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…2246backed Yes | 74c | 166.32$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +546.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48c9…f159backed Yes | 24c | 119$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…4a71backed Yes | 13c | 111.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +645.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 10c | 108$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 29c | 105.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 20c | 98.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +274.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…1478backed Yes | 26c | 89.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +292%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7191…a144backed Yes | 19c | 89.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8922…0cf5backed Yes | 21c | 85.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 64c | 81.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…2aefbacked No | 74c | 66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd214…5fcdbacked No | 75c | 56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Yes | 32c | 46.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…dad6backed No | 76c | 16.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…8abdbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…132cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed No | 70c | 14.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…dc9cbacked No | 77c | 13.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB dip to $800 in January?this page
- Will BNB dip to $400 in January?No won
- Will BNB dip to $600 in January?No won
- Will BNB dip to $700 in January?No won
- Will BNB reach $1000 in January?No won
- Will BNB reach $1100 in January?No won
- Will BNB reach $1200 in January?No won
- Will BNB reach $1300 in January?No won
- Will BNB reach $900 in January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.