Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b1bc4a28ec89059040c49deb2ead2c03db6453deb328f282e3198434a52c3ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,257 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 71c | 464.54$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.28 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 383.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 382.27$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 33c | 300.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 292.41$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 262.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 37c | 257.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 46c | 250.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 244.89$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 24c | 237.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 194.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0141…c2dabacked Yes | 27c | 192.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 78c | 188.08$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 25c | 185.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 135.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 34c | 118.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 112.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 108.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 101.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 93.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked Yes | 51c | 89.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 88.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 28c | 84.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 82.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 24c | 78.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 57c | 75.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 75.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 24c | 69.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 67.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e4…fc45backed Yes | 49c | 57.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 54.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 22c | 51.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 50.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 22c | 47.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…7ea8backed Yes | 29c | 45.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed Yes | 35c | 43.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 42.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 32c | 41.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 39c | 36.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 35.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 33.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 31.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 31.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 50c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 66c | 20.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 52c | 19.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 71c | 18.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 68c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 75c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 3°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.