Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x810acd0888508d921cecd168553e259e450314d929d8f30ca9fd6e0abf5c060f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 18c | 1,483$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 5c | 976.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 589.48$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 42c | 398.7$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.76 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 300.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 18c | 278.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 47c | 241.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.46 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 239.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 46c | 218.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 33c | 215.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.2 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 53c | 206.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 178.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 77c | 158.64$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 144.91$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 49c | 128$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 44c | 126.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 118.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 111.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 68c | 102.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 50c | 99.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 65c | 98.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 96.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 61c | 87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 46c | 78.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 67c | 74.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 39c | 71.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 65.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 62.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 51.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 48.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 48c | 48.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 46c | 47.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 31c | 44.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 47c | 43.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf72f…3b4dbacked Yes | 44c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 27c | 37.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 37.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 54c | 37.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 36.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 57c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 68c | 35.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 46c | 34.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 29c | 34.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 75c | 33.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…5759backed Yes | 76c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 31.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…2f76backed Yes | 42c | 31.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Yes | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 49c | 30.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9a…b06abacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 58c | 27.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a8…6da5backed No | 49c | 26.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 23.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 59c | 22.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 58c | 21.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 75c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 75c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2423…4137backed Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…3489backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1ddbbacked Yes | 67c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 3°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.