Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b4f1e2dc862f7f3059fd1fc173281d081c9bc5069458db439d0513ef4f50b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Virtus.pro | 42c | 2,500$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.99 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…7255backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 2,266$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Virtus.pro | 49c | 1,300$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Virtus.pro | 1c | 992.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…cbe2backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 682$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 595.42$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.42 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Virtus.pro | 46c | 541.5$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.49 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Virtus.pro | 41c | 465.42$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 412.88$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.5 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…b1d7backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 268.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…dc1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 257.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 252.13$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 239.55$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Virtus.pro | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Virtus.pro | 45c | 172.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 169.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 167.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…c36abacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 147.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…6c62backed Virtus.pro | 7c | 145.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 119.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…b7f3backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 113.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 98.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 96.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Virtus.pro | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Virtus.pro | 43c | 74.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 70.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb9…cadfbacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…99adbacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 60.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Virtus.pro | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…9168backed Virtus.pro | 52c | 47.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Virtus.pro | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff2…b6ecbacked Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…5cf8backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 18.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.