NHL · resolved market
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b595496ad62e16215ce93da0c3e6e1793d5c1e9faf7fb4c9d0082e6f6b8718a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Toronto Marlies, Chicago Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Wolves | 2c | 8,420$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Chicago Wolves | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.97 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…14acbacked Chicago Wolves | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 614.17$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.51 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Toronto Marlies | 46c | 315$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…7784backed Chicago Wolves | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Chicago Wolves | 51c | 258$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.37 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 230$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked Toronto Marlies | 47c | 205.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Chicago Wolves | 54c | 162$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Toronto Marlies | 55c | 110.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Chicago Wolves | 11c | 108.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Toronto Marlies | 47c | 104.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 96.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Marlies | 43c | 86.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 85.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…79c3backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 57.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Wolves | 48c | 55.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Toronto Marlies | 53c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Chicago Wolves | 59c | 48.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed Toronto Marlies | 46c | 48.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…59d1backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 44.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Chicago Wolves | 74c | 43.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…132fbacked Toronto Marlies | 47c | 41.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Toronto Marlies | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Toronto Marlies | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Toronto Marlies | 58c | 25.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Chicago Wolves | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Toronto Marlies | 47c | 23.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…105cbacked Chicago Wolves | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Toronto Marlies | 55c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.