Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b909391b0c2e2c6ff2553ccd2aa6505bbb59b667a5c3763a53b7fad52bf511c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,493$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.83 | 108 | 25%27 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,119$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.91 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…895bbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 80c | 533.91$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 16c | 510$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed No | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 72c | 373$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 75c | 333$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 134 | 26.1%35 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 70c | 326.63$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 175.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 138.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 28c | 84.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…993dbacked Yes | 29c | 67.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 77c | 43.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Yes | 29c | 42.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 27c | 41.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 73c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 70c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 178 | 36.5%65 W · 113 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…2ea5backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heracles Almelo vs. Fortuna Sittard end in a draw?this page
- Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-02-01?No won
- Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-02-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.