Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b93c0393f64169d5e8c18b3bf02a8ba1f9ccab8740edf312014542433728693
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe053…fd08backed No | 77c | 1,464$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac3…e2c1backed Yes | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +253.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 18c | 965.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4362…9e47backed Yes | 28c | 964.29$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…203cbacked Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 24c | 702.66$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.56 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 75c | 482.67$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 15c | 434.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 19c | 271.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 30c | 240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…38a6backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…7047backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 31c | 94.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 200 | 27%54 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 16c | 69.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -11.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Yes | 27c | 57.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Yes | 28c | 57.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 23c | 53.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…aba0backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 72c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 68c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Sheffield United FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.