Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b97dcbd797e4ca2648418ce1b159545544008169ef66625fbf16fd27f8ab2e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 56c | 5,846$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 4,656$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,551.06 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 53c | 2,730$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.48 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 1,703$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.25 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 53c | 868.09$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.09 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 667$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.05 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.3 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 47c | 460$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.8 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 47c | 340.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.43 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Over | 46c | 139.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 47c | 125.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Under | 54c | 111.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 55c | 91.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 46c | 31.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Under | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 55c | 21.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos: O/U 159.5this page
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UC Santa Barbara GauchosUC Santa Barbara Gauchos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.