NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bb2b073cb628d6344044d7771d76f18ff26c4c206a30649b311a364fd33869f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Grizzlies, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Suns | 50c | 20,962$10,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,481 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Grizzlies | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Grizzlies | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.98 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Suns | 47c | 3,003$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.5 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…b76cbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…3552backed Suns | 49c | 2,483$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Suns | 49c | 1,985$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.63 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Suns | 49c | 1,847$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.97 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 1,728$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…f1cebacked Suns | 49c | 1,636$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe458…51c5backed Grizzlies | 51c | 1,432$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…0932backed Suns | 50c | 1,335$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 49c | 1,108$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…d549backed Grizzlies | 51c | 1,051$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…195abacked Grizzlies | 51c | 1,034$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d2…e13dbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 1,025$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96f…f711backed Suns | 50c | 801$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Grizzlies | 52c | 775.25$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.13 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…a436backed Grizzlies | 50c | 733$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…38e7backed Grizzlies | 50c | 724$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1317…c274backed Suns | 49c | 722$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e02…647abacked Grizzlies | 50c | 687$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96d…8015backed Grizzlies | 51c | 623$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…5f70backed Suns | 49c | 622$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…716cbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 611$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…2876backed Suns | 50c | 564$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd698…44e0backed Suns | 50c | 523$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76c…8cf2backed Grizzlies | 51c | 521$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86b9…14f0backed Grizzlies | 51c | 502$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f69…a95dbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 468$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…32aebacked Grizzlies | 51c | 468$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…ec0ebacked Suns | 49c | 423$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Suns | 49c | 421.41$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.46 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632c…8041backed Suns | 49c | 403$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…2bdfbacked Suns | 49c | 367$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 48c | 239.89$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.75 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…69ffbacked Suns | 49c | 231$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…31c0backed Grizzlies | 51c | 230$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 225.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.29 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns | 48c | 175$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 147$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…e420backed Grizzlies | 51c | 119$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…c59ebacked Suns | 49c | 118$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed Suns | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Suns | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. SunsGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 241.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.