NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 241.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba4d54c8821b62074dee128b78a2de41687da12395bf2981143be5d3935b044e

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $323,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $325,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,097 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5afb…4511backed Under	52c	225,201$116,170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109,031.19	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Over	48c	46,000$22,090 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22,090	115	35.7%41 W · 74 L	-12.9wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Over	49c	42,275$20,684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20,684	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Over	49c	30,869$15,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,114.67	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	52c	29,926$15,523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,403.18	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Over	48c	25,296$12,156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,155.96	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Over	49c	16,207$7,909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,909.15	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	50c	14,000$6,940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,940	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	10,141$5,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,007.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Over	50c	6,060$3,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,023.91	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Over	48c	5,025$2,412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,412	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9700…0e70backed Over	50c	2,800$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.19per pick	42cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Over	50c	2,017$1,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008.5	185	36.8%68 W · 117 L	-11.8wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	176	37.5%66 W · 110 L	-16.3wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2738…6412backed Over	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	599.4$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.7	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	48c	437.77$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.78	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under	51c	369.47$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.04	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x544c…ce36backed Over	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda37…6a4abacked Under	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under	51c	150$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.5	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7de7…4720backed Over	50c	142$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Over	49c	122.84$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.19	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	50c	108$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.01	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4731…cba8backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over	49c	61.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	246	45.9%113 W · 133 L	-13.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf939…2e92backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x860a…9581backed Over	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 241.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event