Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bb38dd6c81aa71b93f02980a6986753e38395b16c04d23d7751c285ef68830c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 2c | 798.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 346.41$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 59c | 233.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed No | 78c | 127.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed No | 72c | 101$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 31c | 98.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 82.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 42c | 69.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 67c | 66.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 34c | 63.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 39c | 58.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 39c | 48.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 32c | 47.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 44.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…1082backed No | 67c | 44.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 43.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 42.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 51c | 41.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 39.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 37.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 37.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 500 | 50.4%252 W · 248 L | +21.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 34c | 33.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 52c | 31.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 386 | 70.2%271 W · 115 L | +64.1wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…622cbacked No | 55c | 25.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 22.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 48c | 21.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 55c | 18.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,087 | 51.9%564 W · 523 L | +75.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.