Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bca47432a0a5c5e7e278d4a104e0df7708c43228ab5c7b961ac21fb257e3fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,184 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x976d…430cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 2c | 1,010$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 76c | 650.97$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.85 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 3c | 631.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked Yes | 17c | 559.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 75c | 500$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 400.75$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked Yes | 4c | 371.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 335.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.68 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 302.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 190.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 14c | 189.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 18c | 180.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 38c | 173.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…8047backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 162$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 20c | 144.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 141.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 71c | 134.87$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 67c | 128.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 10c | 120.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 41c | 105.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 48c | 104.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 44c | 58.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 52c | 53.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 26c | 44.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 38c | 40.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 28.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…fb74backed Yes | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 59c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35c…ff41backed Yes | 50c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 60c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.