Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03331a32bc36de335315c3e2b811bab90f7a907b6734e366ece17008be2f156c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,257 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x019b…8edebacked No | 80c | 879.18$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 390.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 25c | 309.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.82 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…2987backed Yes | 31c | 240.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 229.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 25c | 222.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.73 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 29c | 219.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.21 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 21c | 206.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 202.94$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 18c | 181.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.43 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 176$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 116.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 115.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 45c | 109.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 69c | 108.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 22c | 101.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 51c | 101.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 36c | 100.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 99.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 24c | 97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 91.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 89.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 77c | 84.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 69.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 16c | 63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 20c | 61.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 69c | 59.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 70c | 53.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 33c | 53.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 24c | 52.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…d59cbacked Yes | 37c | 52.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…c467backed Yes | 38c | 51.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 35c | 50.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 68c | 44.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 68c | 43.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 31c | 42.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 72c | 40.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 40.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 65c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…d73cbacked Yes | 77c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 68c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…babfbacked Yes | 72c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 17.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.