Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe761873b840f5a1e4adfe9af502dd0e568ae65b3922a7dd27d22014bccd6ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,128 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 195.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 16c | 182.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 175$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…2987backed Yes | 48c | 168.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 27c | 165.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 29c | 163.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 35c | 139.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 71c | 108.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 25c | 97.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 95.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 64c | 88.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked No | 59c | 82.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 79.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 58c | 78.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 74.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019b…8edebacked Yes | 41c | 72.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 42c | 71.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 41c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 39c | 69.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 68.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 65.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 27c | 62.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 51.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 51.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 30c | 50.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 37c | 46.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…d59cbacked Yes | 56c | 45.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 44.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d7…0e5abacked Yes | 42c | 42.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 58c | 40.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 61c | 39.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 26c | 38.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 55c | 36.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 56c | 35.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b4…1ff1backed No | 53c | 32.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 38c | 31.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…2860backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 57c | 25.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…877cbacked Yes | 57c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10b…9885backed No | 56c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 54c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 62c | 18.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 59c | 18.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 18.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 17.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.