Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c024cc60909be5631b948f0bfc9c11729e90cc32a287355ecd0ccd59a88d257
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8944…da4bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,814$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.79 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 69c | 2,584$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.36 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…3a42backed Yes | 23c | 2,170$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 19c | 1,932$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.42 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 67c | 1,859$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.21 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 1,223$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.33 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 13c | 1,016$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.04 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 865$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.95 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 17c | 746.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 561.21$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.57 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 71c | 518.86$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 71c | 460.8$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 26c | 419.03$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 362.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 23c | 345.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 34c | 227.11$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 10c | 156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 24c | 134.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 69c | 131.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 77c | 129.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 293 | 37.9%111 W · 182 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Yes | 20c | 112.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +198.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 74c | 87.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 13c | 84.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3a8fbacked Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 73c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 77c | 54.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…a766backed Yes | 29c | 53.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 71c | 47.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 30c | 45.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…2c78backed No | 80c | 43.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 30c | 39.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 28c | 39.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 69c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed No | 69c | 26.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…a213backed No | 79c | 23.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 70c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked No | 77c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Vardar Skopje win on 2026-07-28?Yes won
- Will Rīga FC win on 2026-07-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.