Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: UCLA Bruins (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c185ac6bbc63b22dd83f5df9963815389b88a29839a4a0a76b4f0214bdae5bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCLA Bruinsof UCLA Bruins, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed UCLA Bruins | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 301 | 39.2%118 W · 183 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon Ducks | 49c | 4,434$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.84 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Oregon Ducks | 51c | 2,157$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 155 | 57.4%89 W · 66 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked Oregon Ducks | 52c | 1,143$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed UCLA Bruins | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked UCLA Bruins | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked UCLA Bruins | 49c | 225.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oregon Ducks | 34c | 209$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Oregon Ducks | 51c | 111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oregon Ducks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Oregon Ducks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…78edbacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…b08ebacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 39.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Oregon Ducks | 50c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked UCLA Bruins | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed UCLA Bruins | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Oregon Ducks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 268 | 48.1%129 W · 139 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked UCLA Bruins | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UCLA Bruins (-4.5)this page
- UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon DucksUCLA Bruins won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 135.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.