Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2665256facca89c6257a2e939acffdacbd7c01fedab680c43dfeb3ce096e65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 2,687$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.78 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 2,384$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.14 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 7c | 2,203$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.94 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 33c | 800$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 757.87$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Under | 37c | 543.02$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.1 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…1444backed Under | 39c | 291.38$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 62c | 204$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…19ebbacked Over | 27c | 199.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 61c | 192.03$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 63c | 184$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 43c | 109.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 61c | 92.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d16…addabacked Over | 63c | 58.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 58.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 63c | 48.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 61c | 38.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 62c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 67c | 24.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked Under | 79c | 14.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 0.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.