Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d2ab2c1fc62ba8b0b9fc2556a3f4d4321b75aa372eee061a497a7c8d30a9426
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 3,529$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.06 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…4803backed Over | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 45c | 2,081$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.44 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 1,992$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.93 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,176$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 998.17$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Under | 75c | 666.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 4c | 642.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Over | 36c | 500$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 61c | 467.43$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 18c | 399.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 226.81$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 68c | 176.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 61c | 160.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 107.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 20c | 101.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…85a6backed Over | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…20d5backed Over | 63c | 37.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8227…f436backed Over | 78c | 30.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 76c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…ca3ebacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 0.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)Karlsruher SC won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-1.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
- Spread: Karlsruher SC (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.