Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2a8fe4f74cd7a1a26716f20b12e3d03808e9e8811a7be6b1ac38bd4f12b5da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 581.82$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.34 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 39c | 343.96$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.13 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 285.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 70c | 242.84$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 41c | 220$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 68c | 211.85$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 207.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 196$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 49c | 166.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 41c | 122.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 112.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 58c | 98.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 42c | 97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 74.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 53.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 40.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 71c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 64c | 27.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 58c | 19.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 53c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 68c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed No | 68c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 6?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.