Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4507184befd952753fb22de45090c2303ec846a4382ed35b616cd6f8402fcb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 422.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 24c | 273.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 25c | 203.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 42c | 194.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 192.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 177$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 46c | 169.32$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 156.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 32c | 128.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 42c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 80c | 85.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 41c | 79.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 74.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed No | 76c | 61.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 68c | 56.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 20c | 54.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 75c | 54.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcafb…02f5backed No | 77c | 54.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 52.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 56c | 51.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 44.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 76c | 32.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 58c | 20.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 6?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 6?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 6?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.