Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2fcf5e7a8fe29feec4bb7f45228b7e4be95c839ba28c85d1aa2a0ba1f7d6bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 387.43$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 23c | 383.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 77c | 335.3$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 26c | 282.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 249.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 74c | 188.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 60c | 181.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 19c | 175.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 36c | 161.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 26c | 158.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 156.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 143.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 39c | 127.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 107.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 25c | 98.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 96.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 80.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 66.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 29c | 63.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 35c | 62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 43c | 59.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 34c | 47.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 70c | 44.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…0decbacked Yes | 54c | 30.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 76c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.