TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1570…de29backed No12c1,069$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12344058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes31c832.9$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.31,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed No69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3459051.1%46 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No50c470.88$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.051,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No15c303.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.884,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes45c300.37$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0249622.2%110 W · 386 L+26.1wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed No57c259.13$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1933929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6261…2e11backed Yes66c249.32$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.55048%24 W · 26 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No6c238.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.016,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8242…6577backed Yes60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.081233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes6c200$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18814113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes35c199.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.984626.1%12 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No17c187.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.542,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No12c187.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.12,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes13c178.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9240132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4710…4839backed Yes59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.971330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No72c138.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes35c138.57$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4729427.9%82 W · 212 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No14c136.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.572,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No24c133.45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.512,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes34c131.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.173514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid+3.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes30c128.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.531,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No20c124.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.152,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No11c109.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc66c…7c32backed Yes55c109$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.054070%28 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c104.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes35c101.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8547239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes28c99.63$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3528847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c92.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No73c90.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.964,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No49c87.04$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.562,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed No70c84.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7317940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c76.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.722,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No49c75.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.811,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes58c74.31$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No66c74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7915966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No15c73.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9419861.1%121 W · 77 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes70c71.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.577151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No42c70.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6740337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ad…f244backed Yes59c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.032653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes71c68.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0453258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes27c62.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2847423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x78ab…a53fbacked No72c60.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.91862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No32c60.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.443,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5238…be0dbacked Yes54c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.42347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf06d…7dafbacked No72c55.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.944381.4%35 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick74cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes46c54.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.739436.2%34 W · 60 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+94.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c53.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.895,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No35c50.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.052,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No31c50.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.462,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc98a…5980backed Yes33c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.52944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.795,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No40c43.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.275853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No42c42.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4681…583cbacked Yes44c42.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No25c41.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.442,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No73c41.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes34c40.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.914,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.842555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8748261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No36c37.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.534970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes37c35.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.61,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes41c35.32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8664460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x290a…0994backed Yes33c34.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.331464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+37.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes33c34.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.085,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.071,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed No65c30.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.648261%50 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes40c29.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9128546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b55…0c2abacked No66c28.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No40c28.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.39262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed Yes44c27.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.173852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…fababacked No66c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8415722.9%36 W · 121 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dba…3de8backed No63c23.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.991752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No67c22.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…56babacked Yes52c22.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.612080%16 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No68c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebcc…108fbacked Yes50c21.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af9…b4bbbacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86556.9%37 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2efd…d295backed Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25448.1%26 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No79c17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4318567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No67c16.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.737,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.