Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c33effc58dbc88e52979bd9b7325cb6e0d4a7bc5712ee83e82d8ed60eadcc1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 700.33$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.66 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 63c | 599.99$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 40c | 366.11$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 47c | 323.88$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.22 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 214.36$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 38c | 190$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 156$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 152.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 112.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 104.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 88.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 80.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 45c | 59.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked Yes | 49c | 55.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 47c | 54.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…f526backed Yes | 58c | 39.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 47c | 38.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 38.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed No | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 38c | 29.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed No | 53c | 28.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 11?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 11?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 11?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 11?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.