Mls · resolved market
Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c42a72a8a2289208e498bd62a34ef871bc5f1dfb0b8de4f5eba703dcc5eafc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 36c | 2,170$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.08 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 41c | 1,812$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 64c | 1,137$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.68 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 60c | 994.07$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.83 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 40c | 772.67$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.07 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 639.17$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.45 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 39c | 444$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 416.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 59c | 336.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 52c | 311.54$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 274$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.34 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 241.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 58c | 215$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 58c | 215$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 179$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 123.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 52c | 78.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 44c | 44.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 42c | 37.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 62c | 36.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5this page
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Colorado Rapids SC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.