Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5ad82ef6db9ac57d45a21bd57ca7ca5e070a41ff184b40c87ee69ad413dd15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeac7…953dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,771$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 1,084$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…4240backed Yes | 2c | 1,056$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Yes | 2c | 820.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 287.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 35c | 241.46$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 41c | 232.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 24c | 225.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 75c | 164.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 144.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 137.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 78c | 127.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 40c | 124.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 121.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 120.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 113.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 110.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 21c | 109.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 13c | 107.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 29c | 105.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed Yes | 27c | 104.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 38c | 99.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 84.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…9f26backed Yes | 41c | 80.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 78c | 76.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 59c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…6782backed Yes | 26c | 71.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 68.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 40c | 59.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 49.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 49.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…a647backed Yes | 39c | 48.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 47.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 26c | 46.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 44.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 40.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 75c | 40.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 40c | 32.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 32.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 42c | 29.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 21.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed No | 63c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.