Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd16179cc1ab70f8bdbab96538472f21a2c0c4ca109a51271a596632bd4a5ef2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeac7…953dbacked No | 1c | 17,920$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…a792backed No | 1c | 6,627$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 3c | 906$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 34c | 350.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.07 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 301.65$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 299.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.89 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 44c | 298.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 39c | 279.35$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed No | 12c | 233.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 76c | 215.89$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 213.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 200.98$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 12c | 200.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…8769backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 31c | 189.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.37 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…a1c7backed No | 11c | 171$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 69c | 170.47$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 28c | 168.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 55c | 161.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 13c | 156.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 37c | 149.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked No | 23c | 147.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 142.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 38c | 131.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 58c | 125.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 121.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 16c | 119.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 110.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 42c | 110.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 67c | 103.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 23c | 97.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 29c | 96.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 38c | 92.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 33c | 89.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 27c | 86.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 27c | 85.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 83.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 76.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 27c | 68.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 68.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 18c | 67.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 58.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 33c | 58.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 79c | 57.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 25c | 57.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 36c | 55.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 31c | 48.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 45.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 76c | 43.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 68c | 40.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 37c | 40.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 49c | 39.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 44c | 38.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 29c | 38.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 31c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 35.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 62c | 35.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 71c | 33.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 79c | 30.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…31b7backed No | 67c | 29.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 71c | 26.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 25.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 77c | 25.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 52c | 23.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 77c | 22.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…3affbacked No | 62c | 22.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked No | 72c | 20.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 77c | 20.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…6c30backed No | 59c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 19.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 18.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 17.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 75c | 16.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 13.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.