Tennis · resolved market
Jessica Pegula vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c64566b77d86013ee150a49771847c09c9a2dcd7d46c03908db442a2c5dfc0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 4,886$2,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,784.74 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 4,368$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.76 | 1,013 | 50.1%508 W · 505 L | +36.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 640.72$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.21 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 554.76$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.76 | 539 | 42.1%227 W · 312 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d3…6b98backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 554.76$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.76 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 368$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 221.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 46c | 147.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b94…9c0dbacked Over 2.5 | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over 2.5 | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 303 | 35.3%107 W · 196 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Under 2.5 | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…680bbacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Over 2.5 | 55c | 35.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 33.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 441 | 51.9%229 W · 212 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 30.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 26.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jessica Pegula vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra EalaAlexandra Eala won
- Pegula vs. Eala: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Pegula vs. Eala: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs EalaPegula won
- Set 2 Winner: Pegula vs EalaEala won
- Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5)Eala won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.