Other European Leagues · resolved market
PSV vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c7a2aad3ccd2b0b18de7507803a94b53e7394bb489e9166cdfc4f85e76be658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 6,086$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.52 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 15c | 2,584$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.32 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 10c | 1,384$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.78 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 67c | 1,334$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.16 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 32c | 772.7$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.26 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 14c | 627.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 58c | 519.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 33c | 92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 61c | 66.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…6a00backed Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…1890backed Under | 41c | 57.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 35c | 48.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Over | 66c | 25.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Over | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…8dd0backed Over | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…bd06backed Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PSV vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 3.5this page
- PSV vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 2.5Over won
- PSV vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: PSV (-2.5)Heracles Almelo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.