World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c93f431baf5efa327e8982bd0eb7e5ee18c20fb4faf949ad2830f4cedbf37fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 54c | 815.15$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.36 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 47c | 780.61$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.54 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 163.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 58c | 129.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 37c | 111.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 106.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 80.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 61.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 71c | 54.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 51.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 51.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 40c | 47.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 42c | 44.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed Yes | 41c | 38.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…47dabacked Yes | 42c | 33.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 29.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 67c | 24.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 23.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 61c | 17.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.