World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aa0df93da069d65429d82cda29a7d40fa54eee34cb79014bb19de5d56e584f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 221.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 159.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 159.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 153.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 65c | 143.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 38c | 128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 83.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 73.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 72.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 58.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 57.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 77cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 52.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 68c | 48.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 34.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…18d8backed No | 79c | 32.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 69c | 32.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 67c | 28.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 20.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.