NHL · resolved market
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce5286738b15bf0f26d24e5f2ec08256a26db6dacb6ffec0139818b8ba02e39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Toronto Marlies, Cleveland Monsters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Cleveland Monsters | 50c | 2,222$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.76 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Cleveland Monsters | 52c | 1,568$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.03 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Toronto Marlies | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 1,270$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.11 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…4b16backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 388$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 370.78$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.1 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 297.12$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.53 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Cleveland Monsters | 52c | 213$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0968…ee21backed Cleveland Monsters | 52c | 134$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Cleveland Monsters | 53c | 114.25$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…26a3backed Cleveland Monsters | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068b…e4f6backed Cleveland Monsters | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…ba76backed Cleveland Monsters | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed Cleveland Monsters | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…fd84backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…5a57backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Cleveland Monsters | 52c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 55.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Cleveland Monsters | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Toronto Marlies | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Cleveland Monsters | 52c | 36.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.