Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3baa1eec0afa6c08e4e39b55e1ac2b253ceb9c6942f61326b63d6479e6b222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Rublev, Tsitsipas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Tsitsipas | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.98 | 441 | 63.7%281 W · 160 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rublev | 50c | 998.08$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.1 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…7fdcbacked Tsitsipas | 69c | 729.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rublev | 33c | 703.71$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.52 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Tsitsipas | 68c | 514.71$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 145 | 68.3%99 W · 46 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rublev | 32c | 396.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.88 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Rublev | 59c | 316.04$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Tsitsipas | 66c | 255.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Rublev | 57c | 239$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Rublev | 56c | 212.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Rublev | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7c…3a6abacked Rublev | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Rublev | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Tsitsipas | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…b910backed Rublev | 57c | 146.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Rublev | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16de…2ebdbacked Tsitsipas | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rublev | 32c | 69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…1c7dbacked Rublev | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Rublev | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tsitsipas | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Tsitsipas | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Rublev | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Tsitsipas | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Rublev | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)this page
- Qatar Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey RublevRublev won
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs RublevRublev won
- Tsitsipas vs. Rublev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Tsitsipas vs. Rublev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Tsitsipas vs. Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.